Election Post Week Four!!! =-)

Wow! Can you believe it's only about 18 days till the election. The days are going by a lot faster than one would have they thought they would over the summer. The shortness of time is obviously adding more stress to campaigners, and I bet, based on recent polling data, McCain probably needs a stress ball really bad. I know I would.

A few weeks ago, I commented on a poll found on CNN on the ways states were swinging. Since then, numbers have slightly increased. According to the American Research Group, McCain is leading with 49% of votes, and McCain is coming behind with only 43%. Fortunately for him, 8% are still unsure. Although, as the weeks are going by, CNN shows that states are slowly becoming more sure than they are unsure, they are most likely sure about Obama too. Also on CNN, when people were asked what issue influenced their presidential vote the most, 58% said the economy, with health care and terrorism tying for 2nd place with 13%. Because these polls are very recent, they have obviously been influenced by the debates, media, rallies, speeches, etc. The increasing change of prices for food, gas, clothing, etc are starting to frighten people. I read in the newspaper just the other day that no one believes that the holiday season will bring such great profits as they have in the past because everyone is trying to be more careful. It's basically an example on the rational choice theory. Voters, such as these, who have made their opinions heard about which candidate they prefer and what issues are important are fighting in their own best interests to elect the candidate who will enforce help for them. As of now, it seems that the majority of people favor Obama's economic plan over McCains, and with the economy in such a lowly state, it is no wonder the presidential poll results are the way they are.

In terms of the VA Senate race, the state is leaning very far to the left. According to the Survey USA polls, Mark Warner is in the lead with slightly more the 60% of the votes and Gilmore is trailing behind with only about 31%. There is many reasons for this enormous gap, but with so many issues on the policy agenda, I think people may be more nit-picky about candidates for the Senate and their positions. For example, from people I have talked to at the RCGR (Republican Community of Greater Reston), they all aren't big fans of the recent bailout bill, and neither is Warner. Although these people are Republican, there's a chance that many of them won't be voting straight ticket because of certain candidates opinions that affect them. What's also interesting though, is that many people may just be uneducated at about the race and since the majority so far is voting for Warner, they feel they will too. I read the Washington Post every day and seldom see an article that has to do with these candidates, which is kind of a big deal considering the Senate is a powerful voice for us in government. So, the lack of knowledge could also be an issue and thus having people jump on the bandwagon.

Polls have a huge impact on campaigns. They show politicians if their support is weak or strong, so from their, they can create or maintain a new campaign strategy. From what I have noticed from volunteering, polls also make people nervous. McCain fans look at polls and just loose all hope, or if they have any left, it is most likely very minimal. The wonderful thing about polls, though, is that they keep politicians up to date, and therefore have no excuse to be unknowing of the concerns of people. From the polls I have read, I do believe they are accurate in gauging public opinion. Although they don't speak for every single citizen, they represent us a whole.